SnapX Degen Digest: December 19, 2024

Read SnapX's Degen Digest for insights around Korean CEX listings, altcoin liquidity trends, funding fee analysis, and 2024 crypto market scenarios.

stuart (스튜)

Dec 19, 2024

Contents

Degen Digest: SnapX Weekly Crypto Research Report Vol. 1 1. Impact of Consecutive Listings on Upbit KRW Market 2. Alt Season Expectations: Total3 Chart and Funding Fee Analysis 3. Scenarios for 2024 and Beyond Key Takeaways for Traders Conclusion

TL;DR:

Upbit listed four tokens ($MOVE, $ME, $MOCA, $VANA) within seven days, sparking initial trading frenzies but rapidly exhausting market liquidity.

The Total3 chart shows a double-top pattern, with large-cap altcoins down 20-30% and smaller altcoins down over 50% from their 2024 highs.

Funding fees for most altcoins remain low or declining, signaling weakened trader sentiment and a shift toward short positions.

Two potential scenarios for 2024: whales exploiting liquidity early or Bitcoin consolidating, leading to a new altcoin rally post-inauguration.

Degen Digest: SnapX Weekly Crypto Research Report Vol. 1

Over the past week, the crypto market has seen significant developments, particularly within the Upbit KRW market, altcoin trading trends, and broader market behavior. In this first edition of SnapX's Degen Digest, we explore the impact of four consecutive token listings on Upbit, analyze funding fee shifts, and examine scenarios for the next alt season. Whether you're a degen, new to the space or an institutional investor, this report provides actionable insights into the evolving crypto market.

1. Impact of Consecutive Listings on Upbit KRW Market

A Surge in Listings and Liquidity Concerns

Recently, Upbit, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea, listed four tokens within seven days starting December 10, 2024. These tokens—$MOVE, $ME, $MOCA, and $VANA—sparked significant market activity, with trading volumes reaching trillions of KRW, but also exhibited rapid price declines shortly after listing.

For instance, $MOVE experienced a massive Kimchi Premium of over 100%, peaking at 4,250 KRW (approx. $1.4 on Binance). While this created an initial trading frenzy with over 4 trillion KRW in trading volume, the token’s price quickly declined. Similarly, $ME and $MOCA saw trading volumes of around 2 trillion KRW each, with $VANA trailing at 1 trillion KRW. This trend reflects a rapid exhaustion of liquidity among Korean traders, further exacerbating bearish sentiment.

Market Liquidity Drying Up

The consecutive listings highlight a growing issue: market liquidity depletion due to the over-saturation of new listings with high initial market capitalizations. This phenomenon was previously observed in early 2024 and has resurfaced with even greater intensity—leading to a decline in Upbit’s overall trading volume to recent lows.

Aside from major assets like Bitcoin and Ripple, most altcoins on Upbit are experiencing simultaneous price and volume declines. Given that a significant portion of global altcoin liquidity originates from Upbit, this downturn could have negative ripple effects on the broader crypto market.

Future Upbit Listings to Watch

Two of the recently listed tokens, $MOCA and $ME, were widely anticipated due to notable signals such as wallet activity (e.g., large token transfers to Upbit wallets) and participation in local events like Upbit’s UDC conference. Based on similar patterns, the following tokens are potential candidates for future KRW listings on Upbit:

$CYBER

$AXL

$IOTX (currently listed with BTC pairs)

$PENGU (recently launched via its TGE)

Additionally, Upbit recently listed $PEPE in a KRW pair, which opens the possibility of its counterpart, $BRETT, receiving a KRW listing as well.

2. Alt Season Expectations: Total3 Chart and Funding Fee Analysis

Observations from the Total3 Chart

The Total3 chart—which tracks the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum—has displayed a double-top pattern near the $1.1 trillion mark, last seen during the 2021 bull market peak. Currently, large-cap altcoins are down 20-30% from their 2024 highs, while smaller altcoins have suffered declines exceeding 50%.

Despite the bearish trend, a few altcoins have shown resilience, particularly those with strong narratives or unique use cases:

DEX, AI, and meme-related tokens like $AI16Z, $AIXBT, and $FART.

CEX-linked altcoins with major narratives, such as $ENA.

These tokens have retained their strength, even amidst significant market corrections following the December 19 interest rate announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Funding Fee Trends: A Bearish Signal?

In bull markets, funding fees often rise as traders use high leverage, causing futures prices to exceed spot prices. During Bitcoin’s climb above $100K, Binance's BTC funding fee surged to 0.1%—a clear indicator of market overheating.

However, after the sharp correction on December 9, funding fees for most altcoins have stagnated near 0.01% (normal levels) or even declined further during price drops. This suggests a shift toward bearish sentiment, as traders increasingly open aggressive short positions rather than long ones.

3. Scenarios for 2024 and Beyond

Scenario 1: Whale-Driven Exit Liquidity

One possibility is that whales are exploiting the four-year crypto cycle narrative (2017, 2021, 2025) to front-run retail traders. By pulling liquidity forward into 2024, they could exit before the market matures further in 2025. If this scenario plays out, traders should reduce exposure until clearer bullish signals emerge.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin Consolidation Before a New High

Alternatively, Bitcoin could consolidate between $85K and $110K, allowing altcoins to follow a similar trend before rebounding post-inauguration chaos in early 2025. This would set the stage for a new Total3 chart high and a potential continuation of the bull market.

Key Takeaways for Traders

Monitor Upbit Listings: Watch for signals like wallet activity and event participation to identify potential KRW-pair listings early. Tokens like $CYBER, $AXL, and $PENGU are worth keeping on your radar.

Liquidity Management: Be cautious of liquidity exhaustion caused by high-cap token listings and rapid market movements.

Funding Fee Trends: Pay close attention to changes in funding fees, as they can indicate shifts in market sentiment.

Risk Management: Regardless of the scenario, reduce leverage and avoid over-allocating capital until the market provides clearer direction.

Conclusion

The crypto market continues to evolve rapidly, with major developments in altcoin trading and market liquidity on platforms like Upbit. While the potential for future KRW listings and alt season remains, traders must navigate these waters carefully, keeping an eye on liquidity metrics, funding fees, and Total3 chart patterns.

Stay ahead of the curve by subscribing to the SnapX Blog for weekly insights and check out our guides on topics like Crypto Market Sentiment Analysis and Onchain Analytics to enhance your trading strategy.

*The above is not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own due diligence before making any investment.